Daily Market Outlook, September 11, 2026

Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group

Munnelly’s Macro Missive - Asian Stocks Slide As Brent Nears $110 Ahead Of US CPI

Global equity markets faced selling pressure on Friday as surging energy costs and rising sovereign bond yields rattled investor sentiment ahead of crucial US inflation data. MSCI’s Asia Pacific Index tumbled 1.7%—marking its steepest single-day drop in three weeks—as a broad-based retreat swept through regional benchmarks across Japan, South Korea, Australia, and Taiwan. The weakness followed an uneasy session on Wall Street, though enterprise software provider Oracle provided a bright spot after reporting stronger-than-expected cloud revenue growth in after-hours trading.

Energy and fixed income markets remain the primary source of macro angst. Brent crude edged up 0.2% to $107.86/bbl, having flirted with the $110 threshold as security risks around the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb Strait intensify. In sovereign debt, global yields spiked sharply following an under-subscribed US Treasury buyback operation that pushed the 10-year yield toward 4.96%. Sovereign bonds across Asia-Pacific experienced aggressive repricing: Australia’s 3-year yield surged 20 bps to 5.05%—its highest level since 2011—while New Zealand’s 2-year yield jumped 25 bps.

All eyes are now turned to today’s US August CPI report, which represents a critical input for the Federal Reserve’s September 15-16 FOMC meeting. With Fed Governor Christopher Waller having emphasized that persistent disinflation signals are vital for policy calibration, a firm headline reading driven by rebounding energy costs could bolster expectations for an immediate rate increase.

In Europe, the macroeconomic focus is divided between central bank trajectory and surprising economic resilience. Following Thursday's 25 bps deposit rate hike to 2.50%, ECB President Christine Lagarde delivered a data-dependent message while acknowledging that inflation risks remain tilted to the upside. In the UK, the ONS reported robust July GDP growth of 0.4% m/m, handily beating the flat consensus forecast. Even if expansion stalls through August and September, Q3 growth is tracking near 0.6% q/q—far outperforming the Bank of England’s 0.1% projection. Stronger domestic output, paired with external energy price shocks, makes the MPC's stance of holding policy rates increasingly uncomfortable ahead of next week's policy meeting.

Looking at the broader week ahead, G10 monetary policy and regional inflation data will dictate market direction. Three major central banks deliver policy decisions: the Bank of Japan (expected to hike), the Federal Reserve (live meeting contingent on CPI), and the Bank of England (expected to hold while confirming its annual QT pace, likely reducing gilt holdings by another £50bn). Meanwhile, a flurry of inflation updates across Canada, the UK, Eurozone, and Japan will reveal whether energy-driven headline spikes are beginning to filter into underlying core measures.

Macro to Micro: The macro landscape is increasingly dominated by a twin supply shock across energy chokepoints and duration markets. While firm corporate tech earnings and resilient UK output offer localized fundamental support, Brent near $110/bbl restricts central bank flexibility and elevates second-round inflation risks. For traders, the immediate focus centers on managing yield-curve sensitivity into the US CPI release and preparing for potential hawkish pivots across next week's trio of G10 rate decisions.

Overnight Headlines

  • US Inflation Report Set To Test Case For September Fed Hike

  • US Rate Rise Fears Ripple Through Global Bond Markets

  • US Yields Climb As Oil Soars, Inflation Amps Up Rate-Hike Bets

  • Iran And Gulf States To Meet On Monday In Push For Hormuz Deal

  • Houthis Advance Along Yemen, Threaten Saudi Oil Red Sea Exports

  • Saudi’s MBS Urged Trump To Strike Houthis Amid Red Sea Threat

  • Australia Bond Yields Jump To Highest Since 2011 On Oil Concerns

  • Japan’s Producer Price Gains Stay Elevated, Backing BoJ Hikes

  • BoJ Watchers See Follow-Up Hike By January After September Move

  • Yen Rally Puts Global Stocks On Watch For Carry Trade Unwind

  • UAE To Invest €40B In Germany Amid Slew Of Business Deals

  • Pentagon In Talks To Get Into AI Infrastructure Funding With A $5B Loan

  • Oracle Posts Cloud Sales That Top Estimates On Surging AI Demand

  • Adobe Forecast Misses Estimates, Renewing Fears About AI Impact

FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut 

(1BLN+ represents larger expiries and is more magnetic when trading within the daily ATR.)

  • USD/JPY: 154.00 ($2.86b), 153.00 ($2.74b), 152.00 ($1.66b)

  • EUR/USD: 1.1575 (EU1.44b), 1.1600 (EU996.2m), 1.1500 (EU947m)

  • AUD/USD: 0.7150 (AUD657.4m), 0.7250 (AUD622.1m), 0.7110 (AUD543.5m)

  • USD/CAD: 1.3900 ($693.8m), 1.3800 ($535m), 1.3950 ($319.7m)

  • GBP/USD: 1.3630 (GBP565.4m), 1.3500 (GBP540m)

  • USD/BRL: 5.2500 ($328.2m)

CFTC Positions as of 4/9/26

  • Equity fund speculators increase S&P 500 CME net short position by 4,587 contracts to 307,558

  • Equity fund managers cut S&P 500 CME net long position by 19,361 contracts to 927,454

  • Speculators increase CBOT US 5-year Treasury futures net short position by 121,452 contracts to 1,380,513

  • Speculators increase CBOT US 10-year Treasury futures net short position by 70,300 contracts to 909,275

  • Speculators increase CBOT US 2-year Treasury futures net short position by 21,222 contracts to 882,518

  • Speculators trim CBOT US UltraBond Treasury futures net short position by 36,734 contracts to 369,311

  • Speculators increase CBOT US Treasury bonds futures net short position by 12,258 contracts to 199,501

  • Bitcoin net long position is 703 contracts

  • Swiss franc posts net short position of -22,876 contracts

  • British pound net short position is -49,575 contractsEuro net

  • short position is -24,925 contracts

  • Japanese yen net short position is -92,227 contracts

Technical & Trade Views

SP500 - 7600 weekly bull/bear level

  • Daily VWAP Bearish

  • Weekly VWAP Bearish

  • Above 7600 Target 7800

  • Below 7580 Target 7545

DXY - 99 weekly bull/bear level

  • Daily VWAP Bullish

  • Weekly VWAP Bearish

  • Above 99.20 Target 99.75

  • Below 99 Target 97.50

EURUSD - 1.16 weekly bull/bear level

  • Daily VWAP Bearish

  • Weekly VWAP Bullish>Bearish

  • Above 1.16 Target 1.1750

  • Below 1.1550 Target 1.15

GBPUSD - 1.3460 weekly  bull/bear level

  • Daily VWAP Bearish

  • Weekly VWAP Bearish

  • Above 1.3460 Target 1.3690

  • Below 1.3430 Target 1.33

USDJPY - 155 weekly bull bear level 

  • Daily VWAP Bearish>Bullish

  • Weekly VWAP Bearish

  • Above 155 Target 160

  • Below 155 Target 152

XAUUSD - 4510 weekly bull bear level

  • Daily VWAP Bearish

  • Weekly VWAP Bearish

  • Above 4500 Target 4655

  • Below 4500 Target 4100

BTCUSD - 76k weekly bull bear level

  • Daily VWAP Bearish

  • Weekly VWAP Bullish

  • Above 76k Target 85k

  • Below 74k Target 66.8k

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